UFC 199: Another Lesson in Underestimation

UFC 199: Another Lesson in Underestimation

By Hunter HomistekThe UFC Octagon is a poor place to drop your hands—perhaps the worst.Whether metaphorically or literally, letting your guard down inside t

Jun 6, 2016 by Duane Finley
UFC 199: Another Lesson in Underestimation
By Hunter Homistek

The UFC Octagon is a poor place to drop your hands—perhaps the worst.

Whether metaphorically or literally, letting your guard down inside the cage generates one result: unconsciousness. Now-former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold hammered that lesson home at UFC 199 Saturday in Los Angeles.

After destroying Michael Bisping at UFC Fight Night 55 in November 2014, Rockhold became recognized as one of the UFC's most dominant fighters. Five straight finishes, the most recent a mauling of then-champ Chris Weidman, propped him as a heavy favorite in the rematch with Bisping at UFC 199.

It was a tough betting line to argue. Rockhold's submission victory over Bisping aside, the champ was just…better. He kicked harder and more creatively. He was taller, longer, and rangier. His submissions were craftier. His strength was mightier. His camp was more involved and longer, better preparing him for battle.

The problem with all this is that Rockhold knew it, too. Bisping's threat was this: nothing, really. Maybe he could volume-box the champ from a distance and score a unanimous decision, but otherwise, hey, at least he got the chance.

That's how the public saw it, and that's how Rockhold saw it.

Two minutes into his rematch with the British banger, Rockhold was slumped lifelessly against the cage, getting punched repeatedly in the face until the referee called mercy.

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It was a shocking scene, even if you didn't follow the storylines leading in. Bisping legitimately dead'ed him, and that type of unconsciousness is always visceral and a touch uneasy to see.

It's not something the 37-year- old scrapper has ever been known for, but there he goes, inducing legitimate sleeps against the consensus top 185-pound fighter in the world on two-weeks' notice.

It didn't take long for Rockhold to recognize his mistake. He lost before he entered the cage. He overestimated his own skills—and underestimated his opponent's.

"Obviously I didn't respect him enough," Rockhold said in the post-fight press conference. "You got lucky. Bisping, I will come back and fu*king kill you. You enjoy your short-lived destiny, my friend. Mark my words."

He was pissed. His understanding of the situation made it worse. It's a bitter pill to swallow, but it's not like we didn't all know how it could play out. Hell, if anybody, Rockhold should've recognized the danger in overconfidence. His own division turned on its head in July 2013 because of that very trait.

At UFC 162, Anderson Silva, the greatest middleweight of all time—and perhaps the greatest mixed martial artist of all time—danced and taunted, begging his opponent, Weidman, to engage. When Weidman threw—and missed—Silva cranked the playfulness to 11. Hands down, chin up, legs mocking peril. It was downright goofy to watch.

But things got real when Weidman clocked Silva in the face with a powerful left hook. Playtime was over, and Weidman seized the middleweight title, which he would defend three times before dropping it to Rockhold at UFC 194.

There's Matt Wiman smiling and pointing as Spencer Fisher punished him with a couple shots, only to be knocked out by a picture-perfect flying knee seconds later.

There's that "Hi, Japan" guy. There's Jon Jones taking the beating of his career against Alexander Gustafsson, an opponent he felt posed little threat to his light heavyweight title. According to "Bones," training was toned down for that fight, and his face wore the results as a puffy reminder that "I done goofed."

With this evidence—and much, much more out there—it becomes a little shocking that fighters continue to underestimate their opponents.

But let's be real here: You underestimated Bisping, too. I know you did. He didn't have a chance. He really didn't, not until he caused a collision between his fist and Rockhold's face. Then again.

And again. That's MMA.

When are we going to learn?